775
FXUS64 KOUN 260712
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
212 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 208 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
- STRONG TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THIS
MORNING, A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO
QUARTERS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND IN
THE 80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY. STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY
GETTING BACK TO THE UPPER 70S (SOUTH) AND LOW 80S (NORTH). SURFACE
WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15-20 MPH FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH UP TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH RHS WILL NOT BE AS DRY (LOW 30S) THURSDAY, THERE IS STILL
THE CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE GUSTIER WINDS MAY OVERCOME THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION LEADING UP TO FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MAINLY A FIRE WEATHER
RISK OVER THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, KNOCKING DOWN
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THE STORMS
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR (AND LOCALLY IFR) CONDITIONS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 58 78 55 / 30 10 20 30
HOBART OK 79 56 79 52 / 30 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 58 79 56 / 30 10 40 60
GAGE OK 79 54 82 49 / 0 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 79 56 83 55 / 0 20 10 10
DURANT OK 74 57 76 57 / 80 10 40 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
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