658
FXUS64 KOUN 262326
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 123 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
- INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
ANOTHER WARM DAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S) WITH MAINLY
DECREASING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WITH A
SLIGHT BREEZE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY (SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH). THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (MAINLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RH; THOUGH THE DRIEST MODELS SUGGEST A 10% CHANCE OF RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA) TO PRODUCE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINLY CLOUD COVER INDUCED WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA / NORTH TEXAS WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING IN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER WILL SEE LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES NORTH TEXAS. AS THIS
SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER CLOUD INDUCED TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WITH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SEEING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH MAINLY A FIRE WEATHER
RISK OVER THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY, WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND
INTO THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, KNOCKING DOWN
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
WE WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH LOWER CLOUDS (MOST LIKELY 040-050) MOVING IN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT IT IS THE ONLY ONE REALLY HITTING THIS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 30%-40% OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE SOUTH, SO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BUT WE WILL BE
WATCHING THE TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECASTS THIS
EVENING.
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SITE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 79 55 70 / 10 20 40 40
HOBART OK 57 80 51 75 / 10 20 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 78 55 75 / 10 30 60 50
GAGE OK 55 84 48 80 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 84 54 73 / 20 10 10 20
DURANT OK 57 77 57 70 / 10 30 60 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
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