395
FXUS64 KOUN 270808
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY
AND FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE DRY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BETWEEN
25% AND 35%, THE DRY FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THAT BEING SAID, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM.
LOW (15-25%) RAIN CHANCES AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS A WEAK
PERTURBATION APPROACHES THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK THIS
EVENING, FOSTERING MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD AND FAST RH
RECOVERY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO CREEP NORTHWARD INTO
THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON
FRIDAY MORNING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
ALSO REACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY. THERE ARE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING, PROMOTING LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE ROCKIES. HIGHER THETA-E
AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, AIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND INTO THE 90S
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
CWA BOUNDARY, WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DRIER
AIR AND A RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS
OF RIGHT NOW, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS WILL RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
THE NAM IS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS, BUT
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE OUTLIER AND LOOKING AT THE TOTALITY OF
THE MODEL DATA, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ABOUT A 30% TO 40% CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KDUA, KSPS AND/OR KLAW... SO
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL, BUT NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE, NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 56 69 58 / 10 10 40 20
HOBART OK 82 53 74 56 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 56 73 58 / 20 40 50 10
GAGE OK 85 50 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 55 73 59 / 10 0 10 10
DURANT OK 79 57 69 60 / 20 50 80 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page