178
FXUS64 KOUN 272325
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. AN RFD IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH RH VALUES
OF 20 TO 35 PERCENT (LOWEST VALUES IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA) AND
ERCS IN THE 80 TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE. OTHERWISE, JUST A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER (UPPER 60S) IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
INCOMING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE DANGER, DESPITE
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS. FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BE AN
EXCEPTION HERE AS MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED HERE.
ON SATURDAY, A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, ALLOWING RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL RFTIS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIERS OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING. BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND THE DRYLINE, NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (INCLUDING A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS).
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS WILL RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL NOW, STRATUS WITH MVFR (AND
LOCALLY IFR) CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS WELL,
MAINLY AFFECTING KDUA. THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES IS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 70 57 83 / 0 20 20 10
HOBART OK 54 76 56 88 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 76 58 90 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 51 80 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 55 73 57 83 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 57 69 59 80 / 50 70 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
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