992
FXUS64 KOUN 280548
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. AN RFD IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH RH VALUES
OF 20 TO 35 PERCENT (LOWEST VALUES IN FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA) AND
ERCS IN THE 80 TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE. OTHERWISE, JUST A WARM DAY
WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLER (UPPER 60S) IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
INCOMING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE DANGER, DESPITE
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY WINDS. FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BE AN
EXCEPTION HERE AS MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED HERE.
ON SATURDAY, A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, ALLOWING RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL RFTIS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIERS OF COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING. BETWEEN
THIS FRONT AND THE DRYLINE, NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (INCLUDING A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS).
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS WILL RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
MVFR CEILINGS ALREADY AT KSPS, KLAW AND KOUN. THIS STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT
KDUA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION. CEILINGS WILL LIFT A LITTLE BIT DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BUT MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET ON FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 83 54 68 / 20 10 30 10
HOBART OK 56 88 49 71 / 10 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 90 59 79 / 10 0 20 10
GAGE OK 54 86 40 65 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 57 83 48 63 / 10 10 50 10
DURANT OK 59 80 65 80 / 20 10 20 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
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