528
FXUS64 KOUN 281134
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AND NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRATUS
DECK FILLING IN NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA.
INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER TEXAS IS ALREADY
HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BOTTOM OUT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 PERCENT AND
COUPLED WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COULD LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
INCOMING DRY AIR, THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARM DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MEANWHILE, LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE BUMPED A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NBM
BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS HELPING TO INSOLATE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE 90S (NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN KANSAS WITH A
SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH THE DRIEST AIR, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THUS, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
DRY AIR AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE DRYLINE, MOIST AIR WILL GIVE WAY MOIST SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND 60S. TYPICALLY, A
SETUP OF THIS SORTS WOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
DAY AND GIVE WAY TO A POTENT CAPPING INVERSION HINDERING ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SETUP SATURDAY,
THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ALIGN WITH THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SURFACE LOW
IN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY BE DIVING
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, IN A CORRIDOR EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-44. THE BEST
TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS (~9 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM SUNDAY). VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES COUPLED WITH AMPLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL GIVE WAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AN INCOMING SURFACE BOUNDARY. NBM POPS
APPEAR TO BE OVERZEALOUS WITH THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES WESTWARD
AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO UPPER 70S AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA
AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE SLOW FRONTAL
TIMING, BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS TO 20S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL GIVE WAY TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MONDAY WILL FEATURE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AHEAD OF A WARM,
NEAR NORMAL WEEK IN THE 70S TO 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LEE LOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA WITH NEAR-CRITICAL ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR
CREEPING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT. VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WITH A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND DRY AIR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
STRATUS HAS MOVE INTO ALL TAF SITES WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL LIFR AT SOME SITES. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AT DUA THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING. SKY CONDITIONS
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST UNTIL ABOUT I-35 WHERE BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT, A RETURN OF MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED WITH STRATUS FILLING IN AGAIN FROM EAST
TO WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 59 82 53 / 20 10 0 30
HOBART OK 77 56 87 48 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 58 90 58 / 30 0 0 10
GAGE OK 81 54 87 39 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 73 59 83 48 / 0 10 10 50
DURANT OK 67 61 79 64 / 90 20 10 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
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