005
FXUS64 KOUN 282350
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THIS MORNING'S RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED, THOUGH AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S, WHILE LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL STAY UP IN THE 50S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
FIRE WEATHER AND SEVERE STORMS WILL BOTH BE CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.
FOR FIRE WEATHER, A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, ALLOWING RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID TEENS. THIS, COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL RFTIS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIERS OF COUNTIES IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. TWO
FACTORS WE'LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY WILL BE DRYLINE PLACEMENT (HOW FAR
EAST WILL THE DRYLINE PROGRESS) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER RH
VALUES (A FEW CAMS SUGGEST SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE PATTERN MATCH IS WEAK.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP MITIGATE AGAINST
MORE EXTREME SOLUTIONS.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, WE'LL SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH A SECONDARY RISK IN
CENTRAL / SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. OVERALL, INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA, WITH CAPPING BEING A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP OVERCOME
THIS CAP LATE ON SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FURTHER FROM FORCING, CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE A HARDER TIME OVERCOMING THE CAP, RESULTING IN ONLY
ISOLATED (IF ANY) STORM COVERAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE HAZARDS FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM, BUT THIS IS A VERY
CONDITIONAL RISK.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
(SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LOOK TO HOLD OUT A LITTLE
LONGER WITH HIGHS STILL MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY).
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD
SURGING FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
HAZARDS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
MONDAY WILL FEATURE COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AHEAD OF A WARM,
NEAR NORMAL WEEK IN THE 70S TO 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LEE LOW IN THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA WITH NEAR-CRITICAL ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR
CREEPING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING
COLD FRONT. VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WITH A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND DRY AIR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER TODAY LIGHTER AND/OR
DISSIPATED THROUGH THE DAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS HIGHER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA. SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS WELL. AGAIN, CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND CLOUDS PARTIALLY
CLEAR OUT IN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 84 52 66 / 10 0 20 0
HOBART OK 56 89 48 69 / 0 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 90 59 75 / 0 10 10 0
GAGE OK 53 88 39 65 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 58 84 47 64 / 10 10 70 10
DURANT OK 59 80 65 80 / 10 0 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004-005-
009-010-014>016-021-033-034-036.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>085-
087-088.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26
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