856
FXUS64 KOUN 300749
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER RETURNS AGAIN
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR
AND BREEZY WINDS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE UPPER WAVE THAT HELPED TO BRING SEVERE WEATHER LATE LAST NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS,
MODELS SEEM TO BE INITIALIZING THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND THEREFORE
HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALL BUT
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID-MORNING. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO WARM UP BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BEHIND THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
GIVEN THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT (FOLLOWING IN SUIT TO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S FRONTAL TIMING), THE CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAS DIMINISHED. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT MOVES
SLOWER THAN PROGGED OR STALLS BEFORE CONTINUING INTO NORTH TEXAS AND
A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TONIGHT, CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS SINKING INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-30S TO 40S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE IN
STORE FOR MONDAY. DESPITE BEING ONE OF THE COOLEST DAYS NEXT WEEK,
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY DAY WITHOUT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY WILL POTENTIALLY FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF MULTI-HAZARDS WHICH
INCLUDE FIRE AND SEVERE WEATHER. AN UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH STRENGTHENING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT STRONG SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER OKLAHOMA. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WITH THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL HELP
TO MIX THE STRONG 50 KNOT 700MB WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND THEREFORE
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW IS
PUSHED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER JET, THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN,
INCLUDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LLTR WILL BRING WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH HOW
FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL SETUP, GIVEN MIXED SOLUTIONS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE DRYLINE DOES MIX INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE, INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, STORM CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED TUESDAY
EVENING WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 850MB GIVING WAY TO A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY LEAD TO DYNAMIC
COOLING WHICH COULD ERODE THE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAY BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (AFTER MIDNIGHT) WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN. DETAILS IN THE
EXACT LOCATION FOR STORM CHANCES REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DRYLINE SETUP THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS, INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ANOTHER DAY FOR MULTI-HAZARDS WITH
CONTINUED FIRE AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BRING DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL GIVE WAY TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO BAJA CALI AND PROVIDING
AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL BY SUNDAY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR, WHILE WEST OF I-35 THE PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH OR GREATER
OF RAINFALL REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%). WITH THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND COOLER WITH TIME. THUS HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
LINGERING STORMS MAY CONTINUE AT KPNC AND KSWO FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO BUT AFTER THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 42 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 67 40 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 45 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 35 64 44 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 38 61 42 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 81 47 66 47 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page