799
FXUS64 KOUN 301926
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- A STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 5 PM ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER RETURNS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A FRONT.
- STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
LOWER PROBABILITY, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EARLIER ON TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MID-WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE (20%) DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 5 PM, A SHORT STINT OF LOW-
IMPACT WEATHER IS UNDERWAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD, NOW EXTENDING
FROM ~ANTLERS-TO-EAST OF DURANT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH
4-5 PM, THOUGH GIVEN ITS CURRENT POSITION AND CHARACTER OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS, THIS CONCERN MAY ULTIMATELY FOCUS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
(ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS). STILL WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY
(UP TO 20%) MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG/EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREA, SEVERE WEATHER (LARGE HAIL &
DAMAGING WINDS) WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/WIND
SHEAR COMBINATION IN LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
OTHERWISE, A COOL AND BREEZY DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HAS REMAIN ENTRENCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
RESULTING IN COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST (NOW
UPPER-50S). WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS MAY BE LOCALLY WARMEST BEHIND THE
FRONT (70S) WHERE A LACK OF CLOUD COVER HAS OCCURRED SO FAR
TODAY.
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY ON
MONDAY MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY (<10%) AND
MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY. A LARGER PROFILE OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK (UPPER-30S NORTH TO MID-40S SOUTH).
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MONDAY: LOW-IMPACT/COOL WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE. A REINFORCING
SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DRY AND
CONTINUED COOLER (60S) CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME.
TUESDAY: ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM, YIELDING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-IMPACT
WEATHER, LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE
(BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS) HAVE CONVERGED TOWARDS
SHOWING A POWERFUL JET CORE (80+ KTS) BEGINNING TO DIG AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY.
THE MOST PREVALENT SENSIBLE OUTCOME ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
ESTABLISHES. A NOTABLE SIGNAL FOR CLOUD COVER MAY TEMPER THE
ULTIMATE MAGNITUDE OF VERTICALLY MIXED GUST POTENTIAL, THOUGH AT
LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS >35-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
AT LEAST A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. THIS THREAT
WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE
DURING THE PEAK BURN PERIOD, WITH SOME DISCREPANCY CURRENTLY
DISPLAYED ACROSS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, OUR FORECAST REFLECTS A
"MIDDLE OF THE ROAD" SCENARIO IN WHICH FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
(GENERALLY WEST OF A WOODWARD-TO-SEYMOUR TX LINE) NOTES
PROBLEMATIC FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT, RAPID MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. THE GENERAL TREND
ACROSS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN
PROFILE BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT, CONCERN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO STEADILY TREND UPWARDS. THE FAVORED
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT REMAINS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE ADVANCING FRONT LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWER PROBABILITY POTENTIAL EARLIER ON TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS POINT, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLAY, INCLUDING
A TORNADO RISK.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ANOTHER DAY FOR MULTI-HAZARDS WITH
CONTINUED FIRE AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BRING DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT BY THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL GIVE WAY TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO BAJA CALI AND PROVIDING
AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL BY SUNDAY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR, WHILE WEST OF I-35 THE PROBABILITY FOR ONE INCH OR GREATER
OF RAINFALL REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%). WITH THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO
TREND COOLER WITH TIME. THUS HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS
FOUR OF OUR TERMINALS AFFECTED SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS
TOWARD 20Z. COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE VEERING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT TERMINAL
KDUA WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z
AT LEAST THROUGH 22Z. COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM FIRE UP ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH MAY ALSO AFFECT TERMINAL KDUA DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD OF 19-22Z. OTHERWISE, ALL OF OUR REMAINING TERMINALS WEST
OF I-35 WILL REMAIN UNDER VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AFTER 01Z WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING 10 TO 15
KTS OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 63 45 79 / 10 0 0 20
HOBART OK 42 66 45 86 / 10 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 69 46 87 / 0 0 0 20
GAGE OK 37 65 43 85 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 40 61 42 77 / 0 10 0 20
DURANT OK 48 68 47 80 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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