160
FXUS64 KOUN 311027
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
527 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER RETURNS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A FRONT.
- STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
LOWER PROBABILITY, THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EARLIER ON TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MID-WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH COOLER POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRING RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INCREASE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OKLAHOMA. THUS, MID-TO-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, AN 850MB LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN EAST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A 50 KNOT SOUTHERLY JET AHEAD OF THE LOW
STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE PRIOR TO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL JET.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TUESDAY'S FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE TRENDING DOWN FOR OUR AREA,
WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO ALIGN WITH THE SETUP FOR THE
DRYLINE. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE DRYLINE MIXING EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AND ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL 90-100 KNOT JET STREAK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE LATE EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE, THE DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE
DELAYED AND THEREFORE CONFINING THE WINDOW FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INITIALLY WIND DRIVEN ELEVATED
TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH INCREASING CONCERN FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS STATE LINE AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE DRIER AIR FILLS IN
FROM THE WEST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE AS LOW AS 10 TO 20 PERCENT. WARM RETURN FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
UNDER A DECENT 850MB LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO 60S WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (EAST OF
THE DRYLINE). HOWEVER, WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP
EAST OF THE DRYLINE, ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT, SHOULD THE
WARM NOSE ERODE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND THE
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY, LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DYNAMICAL LIFT
FROM ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING IN BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRY AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 10 TO 20 PERCENT AND LOW-END
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
THIS NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS GOING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY CLOSED LOW PROVIDING LIFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL
WEST OF I-44 BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, EAST OF I-44
THERE IS A HIGH (70-100%) CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH OF TOTAL
RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-70%) CHANCE FOR GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND, COUPLED WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CEILINGS WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE E AND SE AS THE SFC
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 47 78 56 / 0 0 20 60
HOBART OK 66 47 85 51 / 0 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 49 87 58 / 0 0 20 50
GAGE OK 65 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 61 43 75 51 / 0 0 20 70
DURANT OK 68 50 78 64 / 0 0 20 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-021-033-034-036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25
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