120
FXUS64 KOUN 292323
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
623 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
-POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
THE SCREAMING MESSAGE OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT AND/OR POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD
HAZARDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. A SECONDARY BUT NOTABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS/TORNADOES IS ALSO PRESENT...PARTICULARLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWARD AND ORIENTED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I44 CORRIDOR. THE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING YET AGAIN, AND HAS
PROVEN TO SUPPORT ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES IN RECENT DAYS.
SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
THROUGH TONIGHT (AND INTO WEDNESDAY). GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS 1.2-1.5 INCHES, THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGH. THIS ATOP A FOOTPRINT OF 7-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 4-8+ INCHES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE OKC METRO
AREA. CURRENT MRMS FLASH CONTINUES TO SHOW SATURATED SURFACE
CONDITIONS FROM THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/OKC METRO, SO ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE RAINS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.
UNFORTUNATELY, ALL OTHER CONVECTIVE HAZARD WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE-
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOSE HAZARDS WILL BE DICTATED BY
CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF DISCRETE/SUPERCELL STORMS
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH. OTHERWISE, CONVECTIVE
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS ALSO HAVE READILY PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THIS AIRMASS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
THE ACTIVE WEATHER DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER AIR LOW NOW OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION. DESI PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS 85%
PROBABILITY OF >3 INCH RAINFALL ALONG THE I44 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 1 PM WEDNESDAY, AND >50% OF >5 INCHES.
SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LOCALIZED QPFS >8+ INCHES MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION SOMEWHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND/OR SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WOULD INCLUDE
THE LAWTON AREA PROPER - WHERE IMPACTFUL FLOODING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED - AND AREAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARBUCKLE MOUNTAINS (A
KNOWN FLOOD-PRONE PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA).
AGAIN, ALL CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND LARGELY
CONTINGENT UPON THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND
INFLUENCES OF PRECEDING CONVECTION. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS
APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD FRONTAL POSITION WHICH MAY
EFFECTIVELY MAKE FLASH FLOODING A NOTABLY GREATER RISK THAN
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
THE PARENT UPPER AIR LOW WHICH HAS INSTIGATED MUCH OF THE
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SIGNALS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
ONGOING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH 19Z WHILE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND LOWERED CEILING TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO IFR
CONDITIONS FOR SHORT PERIODS. A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEARLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW FROM STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
KEEP SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 70 54 76 / 100 90 70 10
HOBART OK 56 72 50 77 / 100 80 50 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 76 53 80 / 90 90 40 0
GAGE OK 51 73 47 74 / 70 60 40 20
PONCA CITY OK 57 71 55 76 / 90 80 70 30
DURANT OK 65 74 62 82 / 70 100 80 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ008-012-013-
016>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...68
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