640
FXUS64 KOUN 300514
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
-POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (ALL HAZARDS)
CONTINUE TO BE THE HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM.
AS ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES OUT, WE CAN SEE THE NEXT
ROUND DEVELOPING IN NORTH AND WEST TEXAS. IN GENERAL, CAMS SEEM TO
BE RUNNING ON THE SLOW SIDE. WHILE CAMS SUGGEST A BREAK IN STORMS,
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK. THUS FAR, 24-
HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS IS ON TOP OF AN AREA THAT ALREADY HAS NUMEROUS
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, ALL OTHER CONVECTIVE HAZARDS
REMAIN POSSIBLE-ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THOSE HAZARDS WILL
BE DICTATED BY CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
DISCRETE/SUPERCELL STORMS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS ALSO HAVE READILY
PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN THIS AIRMASS.
CAMS DEPICT THE LAST ROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING. THIS ROUND
APPEARS TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH SMALLER IN AREAL EXTENT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CAM PREDICTIONS OUT THIS FAR IS LOW DUE TO
EFFECTS FROM CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THURSDAY SHOULD GIVE US A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN, WITH ANOTHER WAVE (AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES) MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD. FRIDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS DURING
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SIGNALS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING) CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR (AND SOMETIMES
IFR) CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
OUTFLOW FROM STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 55 78 56 / 100 60 10 60
HOBART OK 71 51 78 55 / 80 50 0 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 53 80 58 / 90 40 0 50
GAGE OK 72 47 76 50 / 50 30 20 60
PONCA CITY OK 71 55 77 54 / 90 60 20 50
DURANT OK 74 60 82 61 / 100 60 0 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OKZ008-012-013-016>048-
050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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