851
FXUS64 KOUN 302114
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
414 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
-POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SOUTHWEST.
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
-SEVERE STORMS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
THE ONGOING SEVERE AND FLOODING RISKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. HRRR RUNS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXIT EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY INITIATE A FINAL ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING WHICH
COULD TRACK INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH NOT
PRODUCING ANY LARGE QPF WITH THESE FAST MOVING STORMS, COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ADDED TO SOME ALREADY FLOODED AREAS
IN PARTS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TEXAS. MID-LEVEL
FORCING WEST OF THE TROUGHS AXIS MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
STORMS DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
NORTHERN CWA SO WILL KEEP STORM POPS WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS
OUR NORTH WITH ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FALLING INTO LESS
SATURATED AREAS. RAIN POPS WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUR CURRENT FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN REDUCED TO JUST 8 COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND TWO IN TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ACCUMULATE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MOST OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY BETWEEN OUR NEXT UPPER SYSTEM COMING
THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY, MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH CONSISTENT RUNS LIFTING THE
PREVIOUS DAYS COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AS A RETURNING WARM
FRONT INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE, THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK KEEPING CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO BE IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH NOT
FULL SUN IN THE AFTERNOON, THE INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON UP TO 2000 J/KG
OF SB CAPE WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TOWARD THE EVENING WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN. STRONG INVERSION CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS
ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER CONVECTION MAY START
INITIATING DURING THE EVENING ON THE OKLAHOMA & NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES AS THE UPPER WAVE DIGS THROUGH WITH THESE STORMS MOVING
INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING AND EXPANDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THESE STORMS WILL START OUT ELEVATED BUT COULD STRENGTHEN
WHEN BECOMING MORE SURFACE BASED WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE RETURNING
WARM FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE TWO
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS.
STORMS MAY BE RESTRICTED TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
EXITING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE RISK IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND WILL BE MUCH LOWER AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THAT FLOODED OUT WILL SEE A LULL THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY, AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THAT SATURATED GROUND COULD POSE AN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
FLOODING RISK. RIVER FLOODING FROM THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IT
WILL ALSO FEEL UNSEASONABLY COLDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE U.S. NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER THIS COOLER
TROUGH WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS DURING
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SOME SIGNALS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AGAIN BY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER KDUA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY DRY. LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST LATE EVENING FOR KCSM, KLAW, AND KSPS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 78 57 67 / 40 0 60 70
HOBART OK 51 79 55 69 / 40 0 60 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 54 82 57 71 / 30 0 40 80
GAGE OK 46 76 50 70 / 30 10 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 55 77 54 71 / 40 10 50 40
DURANT OK 60 83 61 73 / 50 0 40 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ034>038-044.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ085-086.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01
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