202
FXUS64 KOUN 011056
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
- SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD / FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- HEAVY RAIN RETURNS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT (SEE DETAILS BELOW), BUT
FIRST A BREAK FROM THE UNRELENTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S.
A UPPER TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT (PRIMARILY AFTER 10PM), LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAMS SUGGEST TWO FOCAL AREAS FOR STORMS. FIRST
WILL BE STORMS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND FORMING INTO A LINE BEFORE
ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SECOND WILL BE A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW STORMS
INITIATING OFF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS (WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS), MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AFTER THE MAIN ROUND MOVES THROUGH, LIGHTER RAIN MAY
LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR, YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE A NEW AIRMASS IN PLACE, LEAVING US SUNNY
AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SOME LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST BEGINS SHIFTING
EASTWARD, INTRODUCING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER US, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY (INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN) AND
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH, WITH THE ABOVE
REPRESENTING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SOME LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 14-15Z MOST
SITES WILL BECOME VFR AND CONTINUE THAT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 56 69 47 / 0 70 60 10
HOBART OK 79 55 69 45 / 0 70 60 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 58 70 48 / 0 50 70 10
GAGE OK 75 49 69 40 / 0 70 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 55 71 44 / 10 50 30 10
DURANT OK 82 61 72 51 / 0 60 80 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ023>025-027>031-037>042-044>046.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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