360
FXUS64 KOUN 011734
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
- SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD / FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- HEAVY RAIN RETURNS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT (SEE DETAILS BELOW), BUT
FIRST A BREAK FROM THE UNRELENTING PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
TODAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S.
A UPPER TROUGH MOVING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT (PRIMARILY AFTER 10PM), LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CAMS SUGGEST TWO FOCAL AREAS FOR STORMS. FIRST
WILL BE STORMS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND FORMING INTO A LINE BEFORE
ENTERING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SECOND WILL BE A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL CAMS SHOW STORMS
INITIATING OFF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS (WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS), MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AFTER THE MAIN ROUND MOVES THROUGH, LIGHTER RAIN MAY
LINGER WELL INTO FRIDAY.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTH WINDS WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR, YIELDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE A NEW AIRMASS IN PLACE, LEAVING US SUNNY
AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SOME LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST BEGINS SHIFTING
EASTWARD, INTRODUCING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER US, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY (INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN) AND
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH, WITH THE ABOVE
REPRESENTING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LOW CEILINGS ARE LINGERING NEAR THE RED RIVER BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 69 47 70 / 70 60 10 10
HOBART OK 55 69 45 71 / 70 60 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 70 48 72 / 50 70 10 0
GAGE OK 49 69 40 74 / 70 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 55 71 44 72 / 50 30 10 10
DURANT OK 61 72 51 73 / 60 80 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OKZ023>025-027>031-037>042-044>046.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...08
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