012
FXUS64 KOUN 020530
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- A STORMY PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THERE IS A RISK LATER TONIGHT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
WITH AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES
WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS OUR CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DOWN AT THE SURFACE THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS BUT IS SLOWLY LIFTING AS A WARM FRONT
INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY INCREASING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE THE
SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FROM FIRING UP. HOWEVER,
WILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES LATER THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS WITH THIS COMPLEX TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE EVENING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM COMPLEX
WILL BE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEVERE HAZARDS WITH THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL
PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS DCAPES WILL
BE HIGH. THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST CLOSER TO AND SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE-BASED STORMS MOVE INTO THE STRONGER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO FIRE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS TO JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER FURTHER
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHILE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM
THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW,
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE SOUTHCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE
JET WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE STRONGEST.
ONE MORE POTENTIAL HAZARD WILL BE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAWTON
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
COULD SEE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING OVER SATURATED
AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED FROM PREVIOUS FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AFTER SUNRISE, WILL
SEE SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED STORMS GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING PERHAPS LINGERING ONLY IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
UNDER CLEAR NIGHT SKIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS COLDER UPPER
TROUGH, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO 40S ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING US IN A DRY TREND THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH A DRYING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SOME LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT BAY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST BEGINS SHIFTING
EASTWARD, INTRODUCING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER US, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL RAMP BACK UP TUESDAY (INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN) AND
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH, WITH THE ABOVE
REPRESENTING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. CAMS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MERGING THE TWO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 9Z. VERY
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW AND PERHAPS DUA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
AT LEAST 15-18Z. MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
14Z WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 46 69 48 / 60 0 0 0
HOBART OK 69 43 70 45 / 60 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 48 72 47 / 70 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 38 72 45 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 43 71 45 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 72 51 72 48 / 90 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ023>025-027>031-
037>042-044>046.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...06
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