393
FXUS64 KOUN 020731
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- A STORMY PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALLER CLUSTER SHOULD REINFORCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER, WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING.
MOST CAMS MERGE THE STORMS INTO A LARGER MCS AND MOVE THE COMPLEX
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT, AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER
30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERLY WIND ON SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A LARGE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND PART
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN INCREASE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. BY MID-WEEK, THE MID AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE, WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND EAST. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH, BUT WOULD KEEP THE AREA IN AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER. CAMS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MERGING THE TWO AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 9Z. VERY
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT OKC/OUN/LAW AND PERHAPS DUA. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
AT LEAST 15-18Z. MOST OF THE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
14Z WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 45 68 47 / 60 0 0 0
HOBART OK 69 43 70 47 / 50 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 47 71 47 / 80 0 0 0
GAGE OK 69 38 72 46 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 42 71 44 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 71 51 71 49 / 90 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ023>025-027>031-
035>042-044>046.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-085-086-090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06
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