928
FXUS64 KOUN 021659
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. FLASH FLOOD/FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- A STORMY PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALLER CLUSTER SHOULD REINFORCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER, WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING.
MOST CAMS MERGE THE STORMS INTO A LARGER MCS AND MOVE THE COMPLEX
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL
LIKELY SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT, AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER
30S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A NORTHERLY WIND ON SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A LARGE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND PART
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN INCREASE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. BY MID-WEEK, THE MID AND UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE, WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND EAST. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION IS NOT HIGH, BUT WOULD KEEP THE AREA IN AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
OUTSIDE OF LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY AT
KSPS/KDUA THROUGH 21 UTC (DUE TO RAIN/LOW CIGS), WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 45 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 43 70 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 42 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 51 71 49 73 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09
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