001
FXUS64 KOUN 030357
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A WET PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD OUT OF
OUR AREA AS OUR UPPER TROUGHS AXIS STARTS COMING THROUGH. COLDER
TONIGHT UNDER THE TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AT THE SURFACE
ENHANCED BY CLEAR NIGHT SKIES. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 40S TONIGHT. RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST AT MANY FORECAST
POINTS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND FEW OTHER NEARBY CREEKS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
OUR UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS IT CLOSES
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
A SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH. WE'LL SEE MILD YET SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND ANOTHER COOLER
NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY TRANSITIONS INTO AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW CLOSES ACROSS THE
U.S. SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. OUR SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
PINCHED BETWEEN BOTH THESE SYSTEMS UNDER A WEAK BUILDING RIDGE
KEEPING SUNDAY DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAKE A GRADUAL RETURN. STILL SUNNY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. SOME OF OUR RIVERS AND CREEKS
WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD AS THE REST OF OUR AREA WILL BE DRYING OUT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
WE GET BACK INTO A "WETTER" TREND EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT NOT AS IMPACTFUL WITH THE
SEVERE AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS THIS PAST WEEK. WE'LL SEE AN AMPLE
RETURN OF MOISTURE EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS OUR SOUTH BUT NOT A
STRONG RETURN. THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRY OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL START BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE WESTERN
CIRCULATION OF THE OMEGA PATTERN STARTS APPROACHING. WE DO HAVE
POPS IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH HIGHEST POPS
INCREASING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWN IN
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL START ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS WITH
THE ADDITION OF A SERIES OF INBOUND SHORTWAVES IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL OVERALL INCREASE POPS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY MAY STAY
FURTHER SOUTH, IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION/
STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA TO HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH. POPS BEYOND TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH AS OF NOW THE ECMWF REMAINS
THE WETTER OF TWO DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 69 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 42 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 42 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 50 71 49 73 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...26
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