898
FXUS64 KOUN 031658
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS BROUGHT A REPRIEVE FROM THE
FLOODING RAINFALL THAT WE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S DEG F THIS MORNING. EVEN
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S DEG F.
BY TONIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER NIGHT FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S DEG F.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH A OMEGA BLOCK SYNOPTIC-
SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN U.S WITH QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A COOL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE
IN PLACE (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S DEG F). HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE RECENT, RECORD-
BREAKING RAINFALL AND ONGOING RIVER FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5", WHICH IS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED
RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE) IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL AT KEEP AT LEAST A MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED FLOODING RISK.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY, THOUGH NO IMPACT TO CATEGORY IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN FROM
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 71 50 71 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 47 72 49 69 / 0 0 0 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 47 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 40
GAGE OK 46 75 48 69 / 10 0 0 40
PONCA CITY OK 45 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 73 51 74 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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