254
FXUS64 KOUN 031942
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL WEEK WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
COOL TEMPERATURES, SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING
TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO
POTENTIAL DEW BY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO CRISP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN CALI SUNDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA PATTERN. WITH THE OTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, WEAK RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE PLEASANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI CONTINUES
TO SPIN EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS INCREASED LIFT
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORNING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LOW, THUS ANY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP.
THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
STORMS WOULD LIKELY GROW UPSCALE WITH A MORE EASTERN EXTENT AND
INITIALLY THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SOME LOW-END MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN
1000 J/KG.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE TRANS PECOS REGION WILL THEN DIG NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF TEXAS, WHICH WILL BRING
THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW (IN THE WARM-SECTOR), COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MUCAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND WIND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50-70 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND LARGE VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL HELICITY CONDUCIVE FOR
TORNADOES. STORM TIMING AND LOCATION MAY DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.5" WITH CONTINUED
FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE
IS A MEDIUM-TO-HIGH (40-70 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1"
OF RAINFALL BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED
RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE) IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL AT KEEP AT LEAST A MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH END OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED FLOODING RISK.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHES OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY, THOUGH NO IMPACT TO CATEGORY IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN FROM
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 72 49 71 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 47 73 50 67 / 0 0 0 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 48 74 51 70 / 0 0 0 40
GAGE OK 47 76 48 67 / 10 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 46 73 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 49 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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