529
FXUS64 KOUN 041705
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
IT'S ANOTHER COOL MORNING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S DEG F. ANOTHER PERFECT MAY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S DEG F WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AS AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER AWAY FROM
THE PLAINS FOR ONE MORE DAY.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS, WHICH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COMPLEX.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ~1.3 TO 1.5", WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3" OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY FORECAST.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS; HOWEVER, THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY ONGOING
RAIN TO ITS NORTH. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION
OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE (DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES). NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT, THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL. CURRENTLY, THE GREATEST (RELATIVE RISK) OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL AT KEEP AT LEAST A MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY
DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND TO RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.
THERE IS LOW (20-30%) POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CATEGORY AT
KCSM/KSPS/KLAW TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD (MIDDAY MONDAY) DUE
TO LOWERED CIGS/VIS AMIDST SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 70 55 61 / 0 10 50 90
HOBART OK 49 66 53 62 / 0 50 80 90
WICHITA FALLS TX 51 67 56 68 / 0 50 90 90
GAGE OK 47 66 50 60 / 0 40 60 90
PONCA CITY OK 47 73 53 65 / 0 0 10 70
DURANT OK 50 73 58 65 / 0 10 60 100
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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