038
FXUS64 KOUN 050345
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LOWS IS BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE
WEST WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO INSOLATE TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT WITH
NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE'S WILL BRING INCREASED
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MOSTLY WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE,
MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG OR LESS OF
MUCAPE VALUES CREEP NORTHWARD AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50
KNOTS. THUS, THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO ADVANCE EASTWARD WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
MAIN HAZARDS INITIALLY WILL BE WINDS AND HAIL, ALONG WITH A FLOODING
RISK (SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH). THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON THE TRACK AND MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW.
TWO MAIN OUTCOMES ARE POSSIBLE: 1. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN
CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH KEEPS THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ANY
INSTABILITY ELEVATED (HAIL AND WIND THREAT) 2. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING FLOODING). ANYWHERE ALONG THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FOCAL POINT FOR THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL (MAINLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA).
PWATS ARE ROUGHLY 1"-1.25" MONDAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE MAIN
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75",
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE PARENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TO DRIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL AT KEEP AT LEAST A MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY
DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND TO RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 4 TERMINAL DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL LOWER CEILINGS MAY OVERSPREAD A LARGER AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 49 71 55 / 0 0 10 40
HOBART OK 73 50 67 53 / 0 0 50 80
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 52 68 56 / 0 0 60 90
GAGE OK 75 48 68 49 / 0 0 30 60
PONCA CITY OK 72 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 74 50 74 58 / 0 0 20 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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