045
FXUS64 KOUN 050815
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
A LEAD WAVE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LEAD WAVE. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING
THE DAYTIME WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL APPROACH THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING ASCENT WITH A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE COMPLEX, ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AN FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD GIVEN THE RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.
THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE NORTHEAST
INTO THE DAY TUESDAY (SEE DETAILS BELOW).
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE ONGOING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UP TO
THE I-44 CORRIDOR TO LAWTON AND OKLAHOMA CITY METRO, WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL IN THE LAST WEEK. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ~3 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST IN TANDEM
WITH THE COMPLEX, SO THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THERE WILL BE NO SURFACE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
COMPLEX WITH VERY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES (50S AND LOW 60S DEG
F)--SO THERE IS NO TORNADO RISK WITH THIS COMPLEX. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL AMONG CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS THERE COULD BE GUSTY,
EASTERLY "WAKE" WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON (WHICH FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR
WAKE LOWS).
THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY THE
DEPARTING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. AS A RESULT, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
STAY NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF THE RED RIVER. REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ALL
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE (DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES) IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE COLD POOL FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT NO REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN OUR AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON (WITH THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH).
BY WEDNESDAY, THE ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA (HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EAST).
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BY THE WEEKEND TO RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD WITH A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS FOR MAY
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN 4 TERMINAL DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL LOWER CEILINGS MAY OVERSPREAD A LARGER AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 55 61 55 / 20 40 100 60
HOBART OK 68 54 62 53 / 40 80 100 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 57 68 56 / 50 80 100 30
GAGE OK 69 50 59 50 / 40 70 100 80
PONCA CITY OK 74 53 65 55 / 0 10 80 80
DURANT OK 75 58 65 60 / 10 50 100 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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