391
FXUS64 KOUN 052004
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
304 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
ISENTROPIC SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE MAIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS REMAINS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY SEIZING NORTH OF THAT AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SHOWERS
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THEY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH A
LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. OVERALL, THIS WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND LESS
THAN ONE INCH IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL LOWER END AMOUNTS
OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST INTO NEW MEXICO, ADDITIONAL
FORCING ALOFT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. IN ADDITION, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT ANY
STORM WILL REMAIN WEAKER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).
LASTLY, THE FLOODING RISK WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND THUS
LARGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORTER AMOUNT OF TIME. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (SEE DETAILS BELOW).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
TUESDAY MORNING, THE AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD WITH A LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THROUGH THE MORNING, THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. PWATS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TO AROUND 1.5-1.75" WITH HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES LIKELY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS AND
SATURATED SURFACES, FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY
LIKELY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF GENERALLY 1-2" IS POSSIBLE WITH "HIGHER
END AMOUNTS" OF UP TO 2-3" POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT APRIL RAINFALL OCCURRED.
FOLLOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH WITH A
POTENTIAL DEVELOPING WAKE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DEPENDING ON
THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING
WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD BE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH ALL HAZARDS IN PLAY.
STORM MOTION WOULD BE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO A MORE STABLE AND
ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED STORMS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER. THIS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IS LOW AND HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY MORNING.
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE DAY AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA (HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EAST).
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BY THE WEEKEND TO RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING SOUTHWARD WITH A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
AIR MASS FOR MAY
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VARIED CATEGORY/CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE INTERIM, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS, THOUGH NO
SUSTAINED IMPACT TO CATEGORY HAS BEEN NOTED (AND IS EXPECTED)
WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 21-00 UTC.
ON TUESDAY MORNING (AFTER 07-09 UTC), AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO LOWERED CATEGORY
(MVFR-TO-IFR), DUE TO LOWERED VIS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD (AND PERSIST) THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 61 55 70 / 40 100 60 40
HOBART OK 53 61 53 70 / 80 100 60 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 68 56 74 / 80 100 30 20
GAGE OK 49 59 49 66 / 70 100 80 60
PONCA CITY OK 53 66 55 68 / 10 80 80 60
DURANT OK 58 64 60 77 / 40 100 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page