446
FXUS64 KOUN 061740
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING RISK INCREASES TUESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE, AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SIMILAR RESPONSE THIS MORNING, WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE CONVECTION WILL
ELEVATED (AROUND 850 MB). ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WITH A
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 750-1250 J/KG WITH DECENT EFFECT
SHEAR SOUTH OF I-40. TYPICALLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL BRING A RISK
OF MAINLY HAIL, BUT THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OF THE 00Z NAM
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TOO.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS DEPICTED A LARGER STRATIFORM REGION
WITH A SHARPER BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN AND STORMS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAKE WINDS WERE ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GRADIENT (40-55 MPH). THIS STILL COULD OCCUR,
BUT AN INTERESTING TREND.
THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWS AN AREA OF 3-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE
AREA MAY NOT BE EXACT, IT LIKELY INDICATES THE UPPER END OF
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT (NEXT 48 HOURS). AT THIS TIME, NO
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH, A
FARTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN A FEW BOUNDARY LAYER
STORMS. ALL HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS.
THE MID AND UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ARIZONA, IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE, AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS
NORTHWARD. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SIMILAR RESPONSE THIS MORNING, WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS, ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE CONVECTION WILL
ELEVATED (AROUND 850 MB). ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WITH A
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 750-1250 J/KG WITH DECENT EFFECT
SHEAR SOUTH OF I-40. TYPICALLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL BRING A RISK
OF MAINLY HAIL, BUT THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OF THE 00Z NAM
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TOO.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS MODELS DEPICTED A LARGER STRATIFORM REGION
WITH A SHARPER BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN AND STORMS THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF WAKE WINDS WERE ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GRADIENT (40-55 MPH). THIS STILL COULD OCCUR,
BUT AN INTERESTING TREND.
THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAX SHOWS AN AREA OF 3-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAINLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE
AREA MAY NOT BE EXACT, IT LIKELY INDICATES THE UPPER END OF
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT (NEXT 48 HOURS). AT THIS TIME, NO
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY WARM IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH, A
FARTHER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN A FEW BOUNDARY LAYER
STORMS. ALL HAZARD ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS.
THE MID AND UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ARIZONA, IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE CONFINED THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW TO AT LEAST THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE MID AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. BY THURSDAY, MOST
MODELS HAVE THE LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE, WITH A MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW AS THE
TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THIS COULD OCCUR CLOSE TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH STILL DRY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WARMER TO PERHAPS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
LOWERED CATEGORY REMAINS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. A MORE CONSOLIDATED SHIELD OF RAIN/THUNDER CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, QUICKER THAN INDICATED AT
PREVIOUS UPDATES. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE, WITH TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS ADDED TO COVER THIS
CONCERN.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SETTLING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY MORNING. INTERVALS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 71 53 69 / 50 60 40 50
HOBART OK 53 70 50 70 / 30 40 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 75 54 72 / 10 10 20 30
GAGE OK 49 66 46 68 / 70 70 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 55 67 53 70 / 80 80 40 60
DURANT OK 60 77 57 73 / 20 10 30 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09
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