468
FXUS64 KOUN 240518
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY REMAINS NEBULOUS AT BEST FOR
CONVECTION. STABLE BILLOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO A
CUMULUS FIELD IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SO DESTABILIZATION WON'T BE
AN ISSUE. PERHAPS MORE OF CONCERN FOR STORM CHANCES WILL BE THE
VEERING OF 700 MB FLOW, WHICH WILL INCREASE 700 MB TEMPS TO ABOUT
14C ACROSS THE DRYLINE. A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD STILL POP IN THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT, BUT THEY WILL NEED TO CONGEAL COLD
POOLS AND SURGE EASTWARD TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA WITH ANY PUNCH
GIVEN THOSE TOASTY 700S.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND THE VEERING OF THE LLJ, A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS
LOOKS LIKELY. THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
MCS CLIPS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 70
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT LINE.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH ABOUT 30 KNOTS OF FLOW
ROUNDING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE THE PROMISE OF MORE
STORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW REGIMES, SO
LET'S TRY TO TACKLE THEM IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER.
THE FIRST REGIME TO WATCH WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF THAT NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA CLUSTER OF STORMS TOMORROW MORNING. CAMS DON'T DEPICT
REDEVELOP/REINTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE MCS,
BUT THAT'S ALSO A WELL-KNOWN WEAKNESS OF CAMS. WITH MUCAPE
INCREASING TO ABOVE 3,000 J/KG BY LATE MORNING IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
IT WOULDN'T BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A SOUTHWARD-PROPAGATING EXTENSION
OF THE MCS OR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND POSSESS A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
TO THE WEST OF THIS STORM COMPLEX/OUTFLOW SYSTEM, WHEREVER THAT MAY
BE, MOISTURE RETURN TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS LOW WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD BY A SAGGING COLD FRONT. SOMEWHERE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT BETWEEN THE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. THIS WILL BE A FOCAL AREA FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS/HEAVY RAIN WILL
BEGIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LAST RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. A
30-40 KNOT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THIS
REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS, THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY, ALLOWING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. WITH THE
PREVIOUS FRONT CLEARING THE AREA, MONDAY SHOULD BE COOLER (UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 80S) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AT THIS RANGE, UNCERTAINTY
BECOMES MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN, SUGGESTING MORE RELIANCE ON
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
MIDWEEK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL (70S) WITH REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AT THIS POINT, SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY BECOMES HIGH.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE, A LINE OF
STORMS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IMPACTS
AT KPNC/KSWO. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON HOW FAR WEST STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT KOKC/KOUN HAVE
A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING STORMS. AS THE STORMS APPROACH IN A FEW
HOURS, AMENDMENTS TO TIMING MAY BE MADE. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LATE TODAY, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE CONDITIONAL ON
THE OUTCOME OF STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS, NO MENTION WAS
GIVEN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 67 87 66 / 20 40 30 40
HOBART OK 88 66 94 65 / 10 30 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 71 95 70 / 10 20 20 20
GAGE OK 86 59 82 57 / 10 20 20 50
PONCA CITY OK 74 62 75 61 / 50 90 50 70
DURANT OK 88 73 89 74 / 10 20 10 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23
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