178
FXUS64 KOUN 240520
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, WE'RE SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AT THE KANSAS / OKLAHOMA BORDER AROUND 2-3AM. THE MAIN
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE MORNING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY RISK. SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN ITS WAKE, WHICH IN ADDITION TO A SHARPENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, STRONG INSTABILITY
(4000-5000 JOULES) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A LOW
TORNADO THREAT (PARTICULARLY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES). WHERE THOSE
BOUNDARIES WILL END UP IS UNCERTAIN BEING DEPENDENT ON EFFECTS FROM
THE EARLIER MCS. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS MARGINAL
WHICH MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT GETS GOING NORTH OF THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. AGAIN, WEAK
RIDGING MAY PUT SOMETHING OF A DAMPENER ON THESE CHANCES (SEVERAL OF
THE CAMS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY EITHER ONLY ALONG OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA).
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS MESSY, BUT STORMY. UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SEVERAL WAVES MOVING
THROUGH. SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES WILL BE AROUND, BUT DETAILS WILL
DEPEND ON PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN SHOWS STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, GIVING A COMPARABLE SEVERE RISK TO SATURDAY
(AT LEAST INITIALLY). AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL START TO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
DAY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF
FOR A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER (70S) THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY DYNAMIC.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE, A LINE OF
STORMS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IMPACTS
AT KPNC/KSWO. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON HOW FAR WEST STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT KOKC/KOUN HAVE
A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING STORMS. AS THE STORMS APPROACH IN A FEW
HOURS, AMENDMENTS TO TIMING MAY BE MADE. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS LATE TODAY, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE CONDITIONAL ON
THE OUTCOME OF STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS, NO MENTION WAS
GIVEN AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 69 86 64 / 30 30 50 80
HOBART OK 96 68 88 62 / 10 30 50 80
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 73 93 68 / 10 20 20 70
GAGE OK 88 61 79 55 / 10 30 30 80
PONCA CITY OK 78 63 76 60 / 50 50 60 90
DURANT OK 89 73 91 69 / 20 20 20 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23
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