597
FXUS64 KOUN 241950
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO JUST SOUTH OF NORMAN TO NORTH OF CHEYENNE. THIS IS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH, ALTHOUGH THIS MOVEMENT IS MORE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THAN CENTRAL AT THE MOMENT THANKS TO THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING, MOST LIKELY IN
WEST CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MESOANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS
4000+ J/KG OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH LITTLE
CIN LEFT. WITH THIS INSTABILITY, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE SEVERE, ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE, AND WE WILL ALSO BE
WATCHING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN
PERSIST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW THIS
POTENTIAL THE HIGHEST FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
BUT WE MAY SEE THIS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AS WELL GIVEN WHERE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE. SEVERE WEATHER (ESPECIALLY WIND)
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES. DRYLINE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND HEIGHTS FALL. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL AND THESE STORMS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME. SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY TOMORROW, BUT THE GEOGRAPHY
OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL MAY DEPEND ON WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS
TONIGHT AND WHERE ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES ARE FROM PRIOR
CONVECTION, SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH YET.
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, BUT AGAIN THE SPECIFICS MAY DEPEND
ON ANY CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES THAT REMAIN FROM THE PRIOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF
FOR A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER (70S) THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER
AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY DYNAMIC.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
MVFR STRATUS WILL DEGENERATE INTO A STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CLOUD BASES MAY VERY WELL STAY BELOW 3,000
FEET. A WIND SHIFT WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH.
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THAT WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN OKC AND CSM WITH ASSOCIATED EFFECTS TO TERMINAL
VISIBILITY/CEILINGS/WINDS. STRATUS WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 68 85 63 / 30 30 50 100
HOBART OK 97 68 90 62 / 20 30 50 90
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 74 93 66 / 20 20 20 80
GAGE OK 86 62 77 54 / 20 30 30 90
PONCA CITY OK 77 64 77 59 / 50 70 60 90
DURANT OK 90 73 90 68 / 20 20 20 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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