762
FXUS64 KOUN 250509
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A FRONT EARLY THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MESSY SETUP TODAY THAT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE/INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A 700MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS, THEN SHIFT OFF EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME CAMS SUGGEST AN MCS DEVELOPING IN KANSAS AND
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAY AID IN SOME OF THIS WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND IS LOW.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE,
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MAKING HEAVY RAIN /
FLOODING MORE OF A RISK. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
RISK WILL BE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE BOTH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
MORE SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
PROLONGED.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER.
CAMS SUGGEST A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION RESUMING MONDAY EVENING PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SO, NBM POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH. WHEN AND WHERE WE DO GET
STORMS, SEVERE HAZARDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REDUCE, LEAVING TUESDAY COOL (70S) AND MOSTLY DRY.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S,
WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2025
EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
HAVE INCLUDED THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALL BUT SPS/DUA. PNC/SWO COULD
SEE CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE AREA SEES A
LULL IN THE ACTIVITY. ALONG WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECT SOME MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT PNC/SWO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
AND THEN INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 64 75 59 / 60 80 70 70
HOBART OK 90 62 75 57 / 50 80 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 67 81 62 / 30 70 70 50
GAGE OK 80 56 68 51 / 40 80 70 40
PONCA CITY OK 77 60 72 56 / 70 90 80 70
DURANT OK 91 68 78 65 / 20 80 80 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ014>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page