555
FXUS64 KOUN 251658
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A FRONT EARLY THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
MESSY SETUP TODAY THAT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE/INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A 700MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS, THEN SHIFT OFF EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME CAMS SUGGEST AN MCS DEVELOPING IN KANSAS AND
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE LOW
LEVEL JET MAY AID IN SOME OF THIS WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ROUND IS LOW.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE,
EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME WIDESPREAD MAKING HEAVY RAIN /
FLOODING MORE OF A RISK. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
RISK WILL BE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE BOTH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
MORE SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
PROLONGED.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER.
CAMS SUGGEST A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH
CONVECTION RESUMING MONDAY EVENING PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SO, NBM POPS MAY BE TOO HIGH. WHEN AND WHERE WE DO GET
STORMS, SEVERE HAZARDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REDUCE, LEAVING TUESDAY COOL (70S) AND MOSTLY DRY.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S,
WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2,500-4,000 FEET. STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MIDAFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER REGION, WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40. GUSTY WINDS, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING, WITH IFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 75 59 72 / 80 70 70 10
HOBART OK 62 75 57 75 / 80 60 50 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 81 62 77 / 70 70 50 20
GAGE OK 56 68 51 74 / 80 70 40 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 72 56 70 / 90 80 70 10
DURANT OK 68 78 65 78 / 80 80 80 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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