606
FXUS64 KOUN 251951
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT. VERY STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH EXPECTED STORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTH.
OTHER STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS, ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- SOME SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A FRONT EARLY THIS
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WILL KEEP THIS QUICK AS WE ARE ALREADY TURNING TO WARNING
OPERATIONS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AND ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM A COMPLEX
OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS THEN SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR A BOW ECHO TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VERY
STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WINDS OVER 75 MPH ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EAST
OF THIS DEVELOPING COMPLEX, AND NEAR A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS OKLAHOMA, AND INDEED ONE SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
ARBUCKLE MOUNTAINS. LARGE HAIL, WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE
COMPLEX.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AS STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK PERSISTS INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH MONDAY AS THE
LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES APPROACHES THE AREA. BUT THE
SPECIFICS IN WHERE RAIN WILL OCCUR AND WHERE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL BE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
AFFECT THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER AND THEN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S,
WARMING TO THE 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2,500-4,000 FEET. STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER REGION, WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40. GUSTY WINDS, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MORNING, WITH IFR CEILINGS AND SOME FOG
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 64 77 60 / 60 80 50 60
HOBART OK 90 62 75 58 / 50 80 50 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 78 63 / 30 80 50 40
GAGE OK 81 56 70 52 / 40 80 60 40
PONCA CITY OK 77 61 72 57 / 70 70 60 70
DURANT OK 91 68 79 66 / 20 90 40 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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