124
FXUS64 KOUN 260358
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1058 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY /
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN /
FLOODING BEING THE CHIEF CONCERN. DAMAGING WINDS (AND HAIL IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD BECOME A DIMINISHING CONCERN.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CAMS CLEAR US
OUT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER COMPLEX
COMING OFF THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON
(HRRR) / EVENING (A FEW OTHER CAMS) AND TRAVERSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THAT ALL SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
THE REST OF TODAY / TONIGHT WILL SHAPE UP WITH A LOT OF DEPENDENCE
ON PRIOR CONVECTION.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WITH THE FRONT SHUNTED SOUTHWARD, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A
DRY PERIOD FOR US WITH HIGHS IN THE COOL 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
START RAMPING BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STARTING IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AFTER OUR MIDWEEK RESPITE, MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT,
BRINGING MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TOO EARLY TO START DIVING INTO
MESOSCALE DETAILS AS THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL IS STILL SHOWING SOME MODEL
VARIANCE.
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVES SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SOME GUSTY WINDS, IN EXCESS OF 40KTS WILL
OCCUR. SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION DURING THE DAY REMAIN
LOW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 64 76 60 / 60 80 40 40
HOBART OK 90 62 76 59 / 50 80 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 66 78 63 / 30 80 40 50
GAGE OK 81 56 71 53 / 40 80 40 50
PONCA CITY OK 77 61 70 57 / 70 70 40 50
DURANT OK 91 68 79 66 / 20 90 50 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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