892
FXUS64 KOUN 260515
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY /
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN /
FLOODING BEING THE CHIEF CONCERN. DAMAGING WINDS (AND HAIL IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD BECOME A DIMINISHING CONCERN.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CAMS CLEAR US
OUT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER COMPLEX
COMING OFF THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON
(HRRR) / EVENING (A FEW OTHER CAMS) AND TRAVERSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THAT ALL SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
THE REST OF TODAY / TONIGHT WILL SHAPE UP WITH A LOT OF DEPENDENCE
ON PRIOR CONVECTION.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WITH THE FRONT SHUNTED SOUTHWARD, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A
DRY PERIOD FOR US WITH HIGHS IN THE COOL 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
START RAMPING BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STARTING IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AFTER OUR MIDWEEK RESPITE, MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT,
BRINGING MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TOO EARLY TO START DIVING INTO
MESOSCALE DETAILS AS THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL IS STILL SHOWING SOME MODEL
VARIANCE.
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVES SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF
THIS WILL START TO DIMINISH / MOVE OUT SOON AFTER SUNRISE. MVFR /
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. SOME LINGERING
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION DURING THE DAY REMAIN LOW. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT TOMORROW.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 60 72 56 / 40 40 10 10
HOBART OK 76 59 74 54 / 30 50 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 63 77 59 / 40 50 10 10
GAGE OK 71 53 71 51 / 40 50 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 70 57 70 52 / 40 50 10 0
DURANT OK 79 66 78 61 / 50 40 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ014>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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