692
FXUS64 KOUN 261147
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY /
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN /
FLOODING BEING THE CHIEF CONCERN. DAMAGING WINDS (AND HAIL IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH DECREASING
INSTABILITY THIS SHOULD BECOME A DIMINISHING CONCERN.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. CAMS CLEAR US
OUT FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER COMPLEX
COMING OFF THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON
(HRRR) / EVENING (A FEW OTHER CAMS) AND TRAVERSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THAT ALL SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
THE REST OF TODAY / TONIGHT WILL SHAPE UP WITH A LOT OF DEPENDENCE
ON PRIOR CONVECTION.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WITH THE FRONT SHUNTED SOUTHWARD, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A
DRY PERIOD FOR US WITH HIGHS IN THE COOL 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
START RAMPING BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STARTING IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AFTER OUR MIDWEEK RESPITE, MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT,
BRINGING MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TOO EARLY TO START DIVING INTO
MESOSCALE DETAILS AS THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL IS STILL SHOWING SOME MODEL
VARIANCE.
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVES SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL EXIT KPNC AND KDUA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 60 72 56 / 40 40 10 10
HOBART OK 76 59 74 54 / 30 50 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 63 77 59 / 40 50 10 10
GAGE OK 71 53 71 51 / 40 50 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 70 57 70 52 / 40 50 10 0
DURANT OK 79 66 78 61 / 50 40 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ018>020-023>032-
037>048-050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ084>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10
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