519
FXUS64 KOUN 262350
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS TONIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY /
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
TODAY WITH LIFT INCREASING TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY THIS MORNING'S STORMS, BUT
THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING AND DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT THAT SOME ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS VERY
WEAK. FORTUNATELY, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT IS NOT WHERE WE HAVE SEEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. BUT THE TROUGH DOES NOT GO TOO FAR
TO THE EAST AT THE MAIN UPPER LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THIS TROUGH MOVING SOUTH, A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING VERY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
AFTER OUR MIDWEEK RESPITE, MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT,
BRINGING MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. TOO EARLY TO START DIVING INTO
MESOSCALE DETAILS AS THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL IS STILL SHOWING SOME MODEL
VARIANCE.
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE SHOULD GET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVES SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
LOW CEILING FROM PERSISTING STRATUS WILL KEEP OUR TERMINALS UNDER
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH BRINGING A FINAL
ROUND OF TSRA ACROSS OUR AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-10Z ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES OF ANY STORMS MOVING OVER OUR TERMINALS IS AROUND
30%. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY BACKING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ALTHOUGH WINDSPEEDS
RATHER WEAK AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 60 73 58 / 50 50 10 10
HOBART OK 76 59 75 57 / 60 50 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 64 77 61 / 50 40 0 10
GAGE OK 71 54 73 54 / 60 50 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 57 72 55 / 70 50 10 0
DURANT OK 79 65 78 62 / 90 60 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68
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