541
FXUS64 KOUN 271122
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LINE OF STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES. STORMS IN
WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST, BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG BEFORE DISSIPATING.
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT MUCH SLOWER WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR
HAVING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND A POSSIBLE MCS
OVERNIGHT / TOMORROW MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A
CONTINUED MESSY PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ANOTHER STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY (STARTING NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST).
SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER END AT THE MOMENT, WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY CONFINED FURTHER WEST--THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH TO SEE HOW DETAILS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DAY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LONG TERM WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYNOPTIC WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS US MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW POPS GET INTRODUCED SOON AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL
KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR US TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY VARIABLE. STRATUS WILL
START TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 59 76 61 / 10 10 10 60
HOBART OK 75 58 77 60 / 20 20 20 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 63 78 63 / 20 20 30 40
GAGE OK 72 55 76 54 / 20 10 40 80
PONCA CITY OK 71 55 76 57 / 20 10 20 60
DURANT OK 78 63 79 64 / 20 20 30 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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