639
FXUS64 KOUN 271624
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS SEEN
ON SATELLITE LOOPS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AT THE MOMENT AND IS
SLOW TO RECOVER DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS, BUT IS SLOWLY
INCREASING AS IS A LOWERING IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IT MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE INCREASING INSTABILITY
IN COMBINATION WITH ANY LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST INTRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A LINE OF STORMS IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY WANES. STORMS IN
WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST, BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG BEFORE DISSIPATING.
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT MUCH SLOWER WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR
HAVING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM RAIN. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND A POSSIBLE MCS
OVERNIGHT / TOMORROW MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A
CONTINUED MESSY PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
ANOTHER STRONG WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY (STARTING NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST).
SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER END AT THE MOMENT, WITH MOST
OF THE INSTABILITY CONFINED FURTHER WEST--THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH TO SEE HOW DETAILS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
DAY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LONG TERM WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYNOPTIC WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS US MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW POPS GET INTRODUCED SOON AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL
KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR US TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLIGHTLY VARIABLE. STRATUS WILL
START TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 76 61 71 / 20 10 60 60
HOBART OK 58 77 60 73 / 20 20 60 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 78 63 77 / 20 30 40 50
GAGE OK 55 76 54 71 / 10 40 80 30
PONCA CITY OK 55 76 57 70 / 20 20 60 50
DURANT OK 63 79 64 78 / 20 30 30 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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