913
FXUS64 KOUN 272010
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
WITH LITTLE INHIBITION, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WE
EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CREATE A STORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING BRING
HIGH POPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COMPLEX WILL
MOVE OUT AND/OR DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS A FRONT
MOVES FARTHER SOUTH, UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE ANOTHER
STORM COMPLEX. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL IS FOR THIS COMPLEX SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LONG TERM WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYNOPTIC WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS US MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW POPS GET INTRODUCED SOON AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL
KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR US TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
DEEP OVERCAST IFR CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING IS GRADUALLY
LIFTING AND THINNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, WITH VFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ON IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET, STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING CEILINGS AROUND 1,000
FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 76 61 70 / 20 10 60 50
HOBART OK 59 76 59 72 / 10 30 60 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 77 63 75 / 10 40 30 40
GAGE OK 54 76 53 71 / 20 50 90 20
PONCA CITY OK 55 74 58 71 / 20 20 80 40
DURANT OK 62 79 64 79 / 10 30 30 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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