763
FXUS64 KOUN 280316
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1016 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
WITH LITTLE INHIBITION, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO WARRANT
AT LEAST LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WE
EXPECT CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO CREATE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CREATE A STORM COMPLEX THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BRINGING HIGH POPS
INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS
COMPLEX WILL MOVE OUT AND/OR DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
AS A FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH, UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX.
THE STRONGEST SIGNAL IS FOR THIS COMPLEX TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
LONG TERM WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYNOPTIC WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS US MOSTLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LOW POPS GET INTRODUCED SOON AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL
KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR US TO BE AFFECTED BY ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS STILL EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30%) FOR THIS IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL (60-80%) FOR STORMS TO
OCCUR WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A STORM COMPLEX MOVES OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NW OK TOMORROW EVENING AND THEN CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG, VARIABLE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE E AND SE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 76 61 70 / 20 10 60 50
HOBART OK 59 76 59 72 / 10 30 60 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 77 63 75 / 10 40 30 40
GAGE OK 54 76 53 71 / 20 50 90 20
PONCA CITY OK 55 74 58 71 / 20 20 80 40
DURANT OK 62 79 64 79 / 10 30 30 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...25
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