397
FXUS64 KOUN 280843
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 312 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WARMING
CLOSER TO AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SATELLITE AND RADAR REVEAL ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS
AND SOUTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX, WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
NOTED THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. WITH THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST, THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE, BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CAPPING. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR ON TRACK
FOR LATER TONIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO THEN
SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STORMS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. STORMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS, THOUGH A
LOW TORNADO RISK EXISTS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IF STORMS CAN REMAIN MORE ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING. STORM
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES.
ON THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH NORTHERLY BREEZES BEHIND IT HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD REDEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WHERE THIS
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINS IN
PLACE.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER A BREAK FROM STORM CHANCES AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH BY THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL WARM BACK CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, MAKING FOR AN
OVERALL BEAUTIFUL DAY.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BUT A GENERAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS COULD LEAD TO STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN US TROUGHING DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
SHARPENING DRYLINE AND ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA, WITH AN ATTENDANT UPTICK IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS STILL EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS/STORMS
MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30%) FOR THIS IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX. THE HIGHER POTENTIAL (60-80%) FOR STORMS TO
OCCUR WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A STORM COMPLEX MOVES OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NW OK TOMORROW EVENING AND THEN CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG, VARIABLE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE E AND SE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 61 72 55 / 10 60 40 10
HOBART OK 79 59 72 54 / 20 60 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 63 76 58 / 20 30 30 20
GAGE OK 77 52 69 49 / 40 80 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 74 58 71 52 / 10 80 40 0
DURANT OK 80 65 79 59 / 10 30 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25
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