979
FXUS64 KOUN 290513
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK,
WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY, WHICH IS HELPING TO
BOLSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AS THIS MCV MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST,
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG AND A
STRONG (~40 KT) LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO AT LEAST SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST CORES
WITHIN THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A VERY LOW TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA, WHERE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST. AS STORMS MOVE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ANY REMNANT CONVECTION THURSDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER A BREAK FROM STORM CHANCES AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTH BY THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, MAKING FOR AN
OVERALL BEAUTIFUL DAY.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
STRENGTH/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BUT A GENERAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS COULD LEAD TO STORM CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN US TROUGHING DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
SHARPENING DRYLINE AND ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA, WITH AN ATTENDANT UPTICK IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A STORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG VARIABLE WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER,
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM COMPLEX COULD ALSO
CAUSE SHIFTING WINDS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR
(WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR IN SOME AREAS) CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING, THEN SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 55 78 57 / 40 10 0 0
HOBART OK 74 54 79 58 / 30 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 59 79 60 / 30 30 10 0
GAGE OK 70 49 79 55 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 51 78 56 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 81 59 79 60 / 40 30 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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