415
FXUS64 KOUN 290617
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
117 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- LINGERING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WARMING
CLOSER TO AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
DECREASE AND EXPECT THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER TIME,
THOUGH REMNANT ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS. MANY CAMS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-40. BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG
OF CAPE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR
TWO THIS AFTERNOON DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN THESE AREAS,
TAPERING OFF BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH 80S MAKING A RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. STORM
CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE REGARDING THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH NBM WHICH GIVES 10-20% POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERN US TROUGHING DEVELOPS. COUPLED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE, AND OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION, INGREDIENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SEVERE RISK ALSO APPEARS
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH RISK WILL DEPEND ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ABLE
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, BOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
RANGE.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A STORM COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS TONIGHT
COULD PRODUCE STRONG VARIABLE WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER,
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM COMPLEX COULD ALSO
CAUSE SHIFTING WINDS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR
(WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR IN SOME AREAS) CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING, THEN SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 55 78 57 / 50 10 0 0
HOBART OK 74 54 78 57 / 30 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 60 78 59 / 20 40 10 0
GAGE OK 68 49 78 55 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 52 78 55 / 50 0 0 0
DURANT OK 83 61 79 59 / 30 40 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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