317
FXUS64 KOUN 291910
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40
- NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AS OF 1:30 PM, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR CHANDLER TO NORMAN
TO MANGUM AND MOST EVIDENT IN THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
GUST FIELDS. THIS FRONT IS PROG'D TO BE NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE-
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, AND OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AN
H500 VORTICITY LOBE, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FAR
TO OUR NORTHEAST, CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THE REST OF TODAY. THE INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT ATOP THE
H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE, PROVIDES FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THE
CLOSER TO I-40 YOU ARE, BUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
(ELEVATED) STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
BETTER STORM CHANCES RESIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND NEAR THE
RED RIVER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE.
CLOUDS BEGIN DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DESCENDS INTO OUR AREA. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50'S, WITH UPPER 40'S POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS, OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
MEAN TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN
CONUS. NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT ANTICYCLONICALLY ON FRIDAY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70'S. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EXIST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
BY SATURDAY, WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REACHES ARKLATEX ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
80'S.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
NBM HAS EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ALMOST NO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE 12Z GEFS AND GFS PRECIPITATION
OUTPUT, HOWEVER, WE OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY (WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE CONSALL MODEL). WITH THE
INCREASING MODEL SPREAD ON SUNDAY, SHOULD THE WETTER SOLUTION TAKE
HOLD, WOULD ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND COOLER.
AN UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. IN RESPONSE, A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MEDIUM-LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS PROG'D TO LIFT OVER
THE PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY AND STORM CHANCES SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY NIGHT.
A POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HEATING, CEILING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY, WITH SOME VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS
MAY HELP WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING, GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 56 78 58 85 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 79 58 87 / 40 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 79 60 86 / 60 10 0 0
GAGE OK 49 79 56 88 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 52 79 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 62 79 60 83 / 60 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06
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