693
FXUS64 KOUN 141928
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
- CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
MORNING CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
DIMINISHING WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO BROKEN AND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 80S TO 90S. MLCAPE >3000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS SUPPORTS SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA JUST NORTH OF I-40 AND WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR STORM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, ANY STORM THAT LATCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A TORNADO.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS KANSAS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT,
DEVELOPING INTO AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS), SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THE MCS WILL STILL BE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
FROM WEST TEXAS AND CONGEAL WITH THE ALREADY OCCURRING MCS. THUS, A
LINE OF STORMS FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA MAY
EXIST BY THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY, MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, FLOODING WILL ALSO
BE OF CONCERN WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5-2" WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND COUPLED WITH SLOWER STORM MOTION WILL BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
7 PM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FOLLOWING MORNING CONVECTION,
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A
LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM INTO THE 80S TO 90S ACROSS
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUNSHINE.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND SET UP A CAPPING
INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
90S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WITH A FEW AREAS APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE BUILD ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY BECOME
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA--SO NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN IS
CURRENTLY LIKELY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
CEILING/VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS WILL BE A LINE THAT DEVELOPS
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 87 71 92 / 30 30 20 10
HOBART OK 71 93 72 98 / 20 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 94 75 97 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 67 90 67 96 / 20 10 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 85 67 90 / 50 40 30 0
DURANT OK 74 89 74 91 / 10 30 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-017>020-024>026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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