173
FXUS64 KOUN 150555
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH VERY LOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- WARM AND DRY END OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE RAIN/STORM COMPLEX
SHOULD EXIT OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES BY MID-DAY, WITH CLOUDS
SLOW TO CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80'S
TO LOW 90'S.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT
OF ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY OCCURS WITH TONIGHT'S MCS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, ARE POSSIBLE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE 590MB MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO INTENSIFIES, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT S/W AS A TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE CALIFORNIA AND HEADS TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. STILL, LOW-
LEVEL WAA WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE
90'S/100'S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEG POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 15%) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND STALLS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN MAINLY TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS SOMEWHERE OVER OKLAHOMA
ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 90'S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF SUNDAY. MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORMS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN IN
THIS, SO HAVE ADDED A LOWER PROBABILITY TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TERMINALS AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS
BY 15-16Z SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SHOULD MAINLY BECOME VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 69 91 75 / 70 20 10 0
HOBART OK 91 69 99 76 / 50 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 73 99 78 / 60 10 10 0
GAGE OK 89 67 96 73 / 40 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 84 66 88 72 / 20 10 10 0
DURANT OK 86 72 92 76 / 70 20 20 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
017>020-024>026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06
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