204
FXUS64 KOUN 151730
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS, WITH VERY
LOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- WARM AND DRY END OF NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS MORNING WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THE RAIN/STORM COMPLEX
SHOULD EXIT OUR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES BY MID-DAY, WITH CLOUDS
SLOW TO CLEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80'S
TO LOW 90'S.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD PUSH ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT
OF ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY OCCURS WITH TONIGHT'S MCS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL, ARE POSSIBLE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE 590MB MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO INTENSIFIES, BUT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT S/W AS A TROUGH MOVES
ASHORE CALIFORNIA AND HEADS TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. STILL, LOW-
LEVEL WAA WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE
90'S/100'S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEG POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (LESS
THAN 15%) MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND STALLS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN MAINLY TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS SOMEWHERE OVER OKLAHOMA
ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 90'S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH KSPS AND KDUA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION
BEFORE MOVING OUT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PERSIST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 91 75 94 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 69 99 76 101 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 99 78 100 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 67 96 73 99 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 88 72 93 / 10 10 0 10
DURANT OK 72 92 76 93 / 20 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
016>029-033>041-044>046-050.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26
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