127
FXUS64 KOUN 151955
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR TO ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- WARM AND DRY END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS). CLOUDS WILL BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STILL
WARM INTO THE 70S TO SOME 80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ANYTHING THAT
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND ATTEMPT TO BRING
THE STORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER, STORMS WILL STRUGGLE AS THEY
PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
MONDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR 100 TO 110 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOW CHANCES FOR A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOUR MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY UNTIL A RETURN FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHING NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS LOW, BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE TUESDAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND BRING A RETURN TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AN
EASTWARD SPREAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND WARM DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP TO RISE TEMPERATURES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS (100-105 DEGREES) ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ELSEWHERE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL. WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-110 DEGREES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
THE DRYLINE WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP INITIAL STORMS FROM DEVELOPING, BUT IF A
STORM OR TWO WERE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS KANSAS WHERE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THUS, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL STORMS KEEP TO THE NORTH IN KANSAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS SOMEWHERE OVER OKLAHOMA
ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 90'S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH KSPS AND KDUA MAY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION
BEFORE MOVING OUT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PERSIST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 97 75 101 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 98 77 100 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 94 73 99 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 88 71 93 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 72 91 75 92 / 20 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26
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