065
FXUS64 KOUN 161646
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS,
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PEAK ON TUESDAY
- SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
WITH A VERY MOIST BL (DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 3 DEG), LIGHT WINDS,
AND AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY IN RESPONSE AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND WEAKENING UPPER JET MAXIMA. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (I-35 AND WESTWARD). THIS RETURN
FLOW, COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL,
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 70'S FOR MUCH OF THE
FA. BY LATE AFTERNOON, A DIFFUSE DRYLINE ADVANCES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND
TO THE PANHANDLES.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR TODAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER-80'S (EASTERN COUNTIES) TO MID-90'S
(WESTERN COUNTIES). WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE, IT WILL FEEL
VERY WARM AND MUGGY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 90'S WITH 100 TO 105 DEGREES
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE LATEST NBM
RUN, AND THIS IS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND DELAYED IMPINGEMENT OF THE LLTR OVER OUR AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS
INITIALLY CONSIDERED FOR OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT WE WILL MEET CRITERIA.
AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, CHANCES ARE LOW (BUT NOT ZERO).
SOME OF THE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STORMS
LATE TONIGHT (UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, LLJ),
BUT THERE ARE A FEW NOTABLE CHARACTERISTICS THAT COULD PREVENT
SUSTAINED CONVECTION TONIGHT, WHICH INCLUDE VERY WARM H700
TEMPERATURES (13 TO 16 DEG C) AND HIGH MLCIN. WE DID INCREASE POPS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES
MODELS, WHICH KEEPS PROBABILITIES LOW AND NOT ZERO. THE SEVERE
STORMS POTENTIAL IS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DEEPENS THE LEE-SIDE LOW AND THE RESULTING
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
(GUSTS TO 35 MPH) ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
A FEW MORE DEGREES AND HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES. WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE,
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL BE A STORM COMPLEX DESCENDING WITH
THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS, IF STORMS MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS COLD FRONT COULD MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FA
ON WEDNESDAY (AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE), AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
NEAR 30 KNOTS, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS SOMEWHERE OVER OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PATCHES OF DIURNAL-FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AT
TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ONGOING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, MOST LIKELY
AFTER 06-08 UTC. WHILE IMPACT TO ANY TERMINAL HERE IS LOW (~30%),
A REDUCTION IN CATEGORY WOULD BE EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO EMERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 92 74 91 / 0 0 10 10
HOBART OK 75 99 73 95 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 98 76 96 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 72 98 65 90 / 10 10 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 92 71 91 / 20 10 30 10
DURANT OK 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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