822
FXUS64 KOUN 180627
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS END OF THIS WEEK
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY TONIGHT'S
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH/SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN
UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA DEPARTING WITH TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY AND A VERY
SUBTLE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE APPROACHING, THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND THIS
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.
STRONG INSTABILITY (4000+ J/KG), 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40KNOTS,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ANTICIPATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL (2+ INCHES) AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (60-70 MPH)
POSSIBLE. EFFECTIVE SRH (150-250 M2/S2) NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE SEVERE RISK EXTENDS INTO
LATE EVENING WITH STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WINDS BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTH WINDS ON
FRIDAY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2025
A THIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH 10-12Z. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE DUA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 87 70 93 74 / 50 20 0 0
HOBART OK 91 70 97 74 / 10 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 73 96 76 / 10 20 0 0
GAGE OK 87 64 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 67 91 72 / 40 0 0 0
DURANT OK 91 74 92 75 / 20 30 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004>008-010>013-
018>020-025-026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06
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